Last week's major data review: textile and apparel: cotton: Zheng cotton 1709 weekly average price: 15,436 yuan / ton (-0.1%); cotton spot weekly average price: 16118.8 yuan / ton (+0%); cotton 328 price index: 16073 yuan / ton (+0%); CotlookA: 86.5 cents / lb (-0.9%); cotton yarn: 32 pure cotton carded yarn price 23303 yuan / ton (+0%); 40 cotton combed Yarn price is 27054 yuan / ton (-0.1%); grey cloth: 32 cotton twill fabric price 5.8 yuan / m (-0.1%); retail: April social consumer goods retail sales of clothing, textiles increased by 10%, 1-4 Monthly retail sales of consumer goods, clothing and textiles increased by 7.1% year-on-year; exports: textiles, clothing exports (in RMB) increased by 9.5% and 16.2% in April; papermaking raw materials: US waste 8# last week average price of 180 US dollars / Tons (+6.3 US dollars / ton); bleached softwood pulp - black needle last week average price of 620 US dollars / ton (+0 US dollars / ton); bleached hardwood pulp - parrot last week average price of 660 US dollars / ton (+10 US dollars / ton); chemical machine pulp - Jiawei needles last week average price of 540 US dollars / ton (+0 US dollars / ton); base paper: gray bottom white paper last week, the average market price of 3717.5 yuan / ton (+0 yuan / ton) The average price of white cardboard last week was 6598.2 yuan / ton (+114.3 yuan / ton); the average market price of corrugated paper last week was 3246.4 yuan / ton (-21.4 yuan / ton) ); the average price of coated paper last week was 6,600 yuan / ton (+0 yuan / ton); the average price of double-adhesive paper last week was 6612.5 yuan / ton (+0 yuan / ton); real estate and furniture: sales of commercial housing in the first four months The area increased by 15.7%, furniture retail sales increased by 12.9% year-on-year; gold and silver jewelry: April gold and silver jewelry +7.5% year-on-year, cumulative +7.8%.
Resumption: Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3158.4 (+0.3%), with a weekly increase of +1.7%. Last week, the textile and apparel (Shenwan) index rose by +3.53%, outperforming the broader market by 1.83pct. All sub-sectors outperformed the broader market last week; last week's light manufacturing sector rose by +4.41%, outperforming the market by 2.71pct, each sub-sector Both rebounded last week. Textile and Apparel: Last week, textile manufacturing rose by +3.89%, outperforming the market by 2.19pct; apparel home textiles rose by 3.29%, outperforming the market by 1.59pct. Light industry manufacturing: all sub-sectors rebounded, among which the household light industry sector rose by +4.52%, outperforming the market by 2.82pct; the jewellery sector rose by +1.5%, underperforming the market by 0.2pct; the papermaking and packaging and printing sub-sectors were respectively +4.36%, +4.13%.
This week's main points of view and focus on individual stocks: last week, the broader market continued to fluctuate upwards, rising 1.7% on the 5th, and the GEM was more active, up 2.88%, and the market sentiment was good. On Friday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued an IPO approval, and eight companies approved the initial application, raising no more than 2.5 billion yuan. IPO or slowing speech is falsified. In the case of IPO normalization, more companies will enter the listing channel, and the market will continue to differentiate. The industry leader is expected to benefit in the long run. After the first round of home appliance liquor, there was some disagreement on the direction of the funds, but we believe that after the IPO normalization process last week is more clear, the funds will continue to concentrate like such consumer goods. Customized furniture in light industry has been listed by many companies, forming a certain scale, and is a strong sector of capital inflows in light industry. Although there are many targets, we believe that changes to the future competitive landscape still need to be judged in several aspects: 1) Preemption of market share. In addition to being driven by the industry, the scale expansion of the custom furniture segment is mainly to seize the market share of finished furniture and hand-made furniture. In the current industry competition echelon has not yet fully formed, participating companies need to continue to expand and increase market share, with the advantages of information technology, through the flexible manufacturing capacity to enhance the scale effect, to achieve strong and strong; 2) focus on channel resources. Channel resources not only refer to the number of stores, but also the quality of dealers. According to the survey, dealers are one of the most important scarce resources. On the basis of the company's marketing strategy, good dealers can break through the competition and seize the core stores and core customers to create regional reputation. A number of custom furniture companies have successively introduced policies such as employee stock ownership and equity incentives. The idea of ​​binding core sales personnel is evident, and it also stimulates the enthusiasm of frontline employees. At the same time, the competition in first- and second-tier cities is fierce. At the same time, in the encrypted online store, excellent enterprises sink to the third- and fourth-tier cities. The product positioning caters to the needs of the third- and fourth-tier cities, and at the same time maintains high brand value. Take the lead in the consumption upgrade; 3) Continue to build the core competitiveness of the brand. Due to the low frequency of purchase and long use time, consumers' demands for environmental protection are constantly improving, and brand awareness will continue to strengthen. We believe that competitive enterprises in the future must be companies with obvious recognition and recognition on the brand. 4) Multi-category layout. The penetration rate improvement of a single product is limited, and the consumer's demand for unified decoration style has spawned a big home, and the big home will further increase the customer unit price and the repurchase rate. From these aspects, in the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the European-style home (cabinet, wardrobe, wooden door, bathroom and other multi-category product lines have gradually matured, began to fully exert efforts, channel construction is relatively perfect, the brand in the first and second line and the third and fourth tier cities Highly recognizable, the introduction of the relatively low-end brand Ou Bo Li, help to seize the third and fourth line market; cabinets are front-end purchase demand, can drive the coordinated development of large household products such as wardrobes, wooden doors and so on) and Sofia (the brand of wardrobe) The degree of recognition has sunk to the fourth- and fifth-tier cities, and the cabinets have a high probability of breakeven this year. The wooden doors and curtains business have also been exerted. Although the previous period has a large increase, we recommend that the funds continue to be held, and the trend investment is more obvious. In terms of papermaking, the recent attention has increased, mainly because the continuous increase in the price of waste paper has driven the rebound in the price of boxboard corrugated paper, but the funds have not yet formed a synergy. First, the rise in the price of boxboard corrugated paper using waste paper as raw material has not led to the use of wood pulp. For the price of raw materials such as white card and cultural paper, the price of paper has not increased as a whole. Secondly, the big cycle has passed, and the funds are more inclined to consumer stocks at present. It is believed that the rising logic of papermaking is still driven by the supply-side reform cycle. Our recent judgments on various types of paper prices: 1) Wood pulp: The price of the inner plate has risen from the highest point of 5,250 yuan/ton since last November, and the current price has stabilized at around 5,000 yuan. The outer disk coniferous pulp (Canadian moon) has stabilized at US$670/ton since mid-March, and the outer leaf price of broadleaf pulp (Brazilian goldfish) has remained stable. The price increased from US$20 to US$660/ton at the end of May. This year, a total of more than 5.6 million tons of wood pulp production capacity was put into production. The earliest put into production is Indonesian Golden Light, a total of two production lines, one of which 1.4 million tons of broad-leaved pulp was put into production at the end of last year, and now it is full of production, mainly for personal use; another 1.4 million tons of broad-leaf pulp production line test machine in early June, new pulp Or launch the Asian market at the end of the year. Brazil's Fibria production line (design capacity of 1.95 million tons) will be put into production ahead of schedule in September. It is expected to produce 380,000 tons of pulp this year and reach production in 2020. The dependence of wood pulp on imports is as high as 60%+. If a large amount of pulp is put into production smoothly this year, it will have a certain impact on the price of pulp in the second half of the year. 2) Waste paper: Since the beginning of April, there has been a large rebound, and it has risen to the previous high of 1,800 yuan / ton. The US scrap price also rebounded from US$185/ton in mid-April, and domestic dependence on imported waste paper was about 34%. At present, it seems that the price of waste paper is still relatively strong, especially the arrival of the domestic small summer season + Tianjin paper mill fire has affected the supply of the northern market, while the southern rainy water has a certain impact on the overall market supply. We judge the waste paper and the price increase expectations. At present, the inventory of waste paper has fallen to 9 days, which is lower than the 12-day inventory at the highest point of this year. We believe that the peak season of waste paper can continue. 3) Boxboard corrugated paper: rebounded from April, the rebound of cardboard paper was less than 10%, and corrugated paper rebounded by 15%. The overall increase was less than the increase of waste paper. Last Friday, some paper companies in Huanan increased the price of corrugated boxboard by 100 yuan/ton. The main reason for the price increase was cost pressure. We believe that due to the return to normal level (25 days) of the inventory of corrugated boxes at the high point, there is a lag in time and magnitude compared to the increase in waste paper. Now the enterprise inventory is not very tight (about 20 days, the lowest point since last year is 5 days), the inventory has digestible space, the price is unlikely to be fast, and the price of the box corrugated paper will rise steadily as the cost rises. . 4) White card: Currently in the off-season of white cardboard sales, but the price of white cardboard is still firm. At present, the average price of Zhuochuang white card is stable at 6500 yuan / ton. As of the end of May, the white card inventory has reached 30 days, already at 16 A higher level since the year. However, as the price of wood pulp has risen steadily, the price of white cards can be stabilized, but stocks have been rising. In order to curb the increase in inventory, several production lines have been shut down since June, and the average number of downtimes is about one week. Now the paper mill has a certain production and sales pressure, whether the white card will fall is not good judgment, if the price can be stabilized in June and July, there will be a new round of price increase expectations in the third and fourth quarters. 5) Double-adhesive paper: Due to the late rise of the price, the price stabilized at 6,500 yuan/ton after the rapid rise in January-April. At present, the market supply and demand are both weak, the price of wood pulp has a supporting effect, and the short-term market may continue. Consolidation. 6) The situation of coated paper is similar to that of double-adhesive paper. The demand in the off-season is weakened, some paper mills are limited in production, and the supply chain has also been reduced. The situation of low-price competition is relatively small. The manufacturers are mainly based on the attitude of stabilizing prices. Since mid-May, the price has stabilized at 7,200 yuan/ton, and the probability of short-term paper prices still stabilizing is relatively large. On the whole, at present, the price of white card, copper plate and double rubber is stable, and the price of box corrugated has further increased. If the price rises or forms a synergy in the second half of the peak season, the short-term papermaking opportunities are limited, and the sun can be laid out in advance. High-quality faucets such as paper. At the same time, we are optimistic about Zhongshun Jierou (consumer goods properties, channel expansion is smooth, Huazhong, East China, etc. gradually exerted force, wood pulp prices may be down, gross margin has room for improvement).
Risk Warning: Furniture is subject to the risk of falling sales due to real estate purchase restrictions; the price of various paper products has risen less than expected.
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