According to the latest reports from foreign media, as the production capacity of recycled paper and board in China is continuously launched, the demand for waste paper will increase further. For this reason, they have made the following analysis. In the fourth quarter of last year, Chinese users faced a severe shortage of waste paper stocks. They began to order large quantities of waste paper supply companies from the United States and European countries. As a result, the export prices of waste paper rose steadily throughout the first quarter of this year. The waste paper users can only purchase at high prices to maintain their production needs. In the second quarter, Chinese users began to turn tired due to rising waste paper prices. They decided to consume their inventory and no longer purchase. This action caught foreign paper supply companies by surprise and their waste paper stocks rose. Very passive position. When this cyclical turmoil recurs, it will depend on whether or not China's waste paper imports will recover in retaliatory terms in the next two or three months. If so, the price of waste paper will likely rise sharply.
Summarizing the current situation, since the demand for paper and paperboard in the global market has declined since 2001, it has not yet reached a period of sustained strength. Therefore, users do not dare to stock more waste paper materials. At present, the inventory of waste paper in their hands is far below production. Steadily rising level. The U.S. economic situation has improved a year ago, but there is still a long way to go for paper companies from their good operating conditions. In particular, the paperboard companies in North America, although the U.S. dollar has reduced the exchange rate, is not The consumer durables market has once again weakened. In addition, the advertising consumer market is sluggish, newsprint consumption has decreased, and the newsprint market has shown signs of sluggish growth. Although the market situation in North America for paper and paperboard cannot be explained in terms of the overall market situation, in other parts of the world, including China, the sales situation of paper and paperboard is also very serious.
Because China's paper industry is heavily dependent on imports of raw materials, and its way is more special in spot trading, it is a bright spot in the international market. China's trading companies respond to changes in waste paper prices by adjusting the amount of waste paper in hand. Understand this point, then the most important issue related to the development of the waste paper market in the next two or three months is whether the domestic waste paper stock in China is more or less, that is, how much waste paper they have imported in the previous two or three months. How much is used, and how much is stocked. But who can't determine China's current domestic waste paper inventory, it may be a mistake to only estimate how much of its waste paper stock is based on China's recent liberalization of domestic production and a large investment in the production capacity of recycled paper and paperboard.
In the next two or three months, it is extremely important for the waste paper market that when the next production capacity of China's next production vehicle is put into operation, it is still necessary to increase the amount of waste paper pulp. According to the original estimation, by the third quarter of 2004, about ten paper-making machines using recycled pulp to produce carton board had been put into operation in China, adding 2.9 million tons of new production capacity. In the third quarter of 2003, the new production capacity was 1.9 million. Ton, these data may have a corresponding impact on the export and price of waste paper.
It should be reminded that the export price of waste paper in the US West Coast for the next two or three months should be given close attention, because as a region, the export volume of waste paper on the West Coast of the United States, especially the amount of waste paper sold to China, has exceeded the export market. Normal proportion, so its export volume and price is a certain representative. Last year, the export price and volume of waste paper soared in the winter, resulting in temporary oversupply of waste paper in the US domestic waste paper market this spring. If we understand the specific circumstances in which the new production capacity of recycled pulp production boxboard will increase the pressure on demand for waste paper in China in the next few months, it will no longer predict the next market development according to the original market cycle.
In this case, despite the weak demand for waste paper in the North American market, as long as China's large domestic imports in the near future will help raise the price of waste paper. Many people believe that if the supply of waste paper does not expand, then the overall trend of waste paper prices in 2004 will rise, even if there is a temporary decline in prices will not fall too much.
It is now known that the amount of waste paper imported by China is likely to rise a lot, and the magnitude of its increase is unforgettable. However, such a large growth rate may not be too long, because the rapid rise in waste paper prices, paper and paperboard prices must also increase, but due to a certain degree of excess production capacity in 2004, the price of paper and paperboard may be difficult With the increase in the price of waste paper, the demand and price of waste paper will be constrained.
Due to the further growth in production capacity during the year, more Chinese users will enter the market to purchase waste paper, and the demand for waste paper will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2004, the number of imported waste paper in China will remain at 2.5-2 million tons per year, and the total annual import volume will reach 10-12 million tons. At that time, the paper companies' complaints about excessively high prices of waste papers will reach a climax in 2004. Of course, Chinese users are the most responsive. However, they have to continue to purchase in order to maintain production, consolidate and expand their market share of products.
Summarizing the current situation, since the demand for paper and paperboard in the global market has declined since 2001, it has not yet reached a period of sustained strength. Therefore, users do not dare to stock more waste paper materials. At present, the inventory of waste paper in their hands is far below production. Steadily rising level. The U.S. economic situation has improved a year ago, but there is still a long way to go for paper companies from their good operating conditions. In particular, the paperboard companies in North America, although the U.S. dollar has reduced the exchange rate, is not The consumer durables market has once again weakened. In addition, the advertising consumer market is sluggish, newsprint consumption has decreased, and the newsprint market has shown signs of sluggish growth. Although the market situation in North America for paper and paperboard cannot be explained in terms of the overall market situation, in other parts of the world, including China, the sales situation of paper and paperboard is also very serious.
Because China's paper industry is heavily dependent on imports of raw materials, and its way is more special in spot trading, it is a bright spot in the international market. China's trading companies respond to changes in waste paper prices by adjusting the amount of waste paper in hand. Understand this point, then the most important issue related to the development of the waste paper market in the next two or three months is whether the domestic waste paper stock in China is more or less, that is, how much waste paper they have imported in the previous two or three months. How much is used, and how much is stocked. But who can't determine China's current domestic waste paper inventory, it may be a mistake to only estimate how much of its waste paper stock is based on China's recent liberalization of domestic production and a large investment in the production capacity of recycled paper and paperboard.
In the next two or three months, it is extremely important for the waste paper market that when the next production capacity of China's next production vehicle is put into operation, it is still necessary to increase the amount of waste paper pulp. According to the original estimation, by the third quarter of 2004, about ten paper-making machines using recycled pulp to produce carton board had been put into operation in China, adding 2.9 million tons of new production capacity. In the third quarter of 2003, the new production capacity was 1.9 million. Ton, these data may have a corresponding impact on the export and price of waste paper.
It should be reminded that the export price of waste paper in the US West Coast for the next two or three months should be given close attention, because as a region, the export volume of waste paper on the West Coast of the United States, especially the amount of waste paper sold to China, has exceeded the export market. Normal proportion, so its export volume and price is a certain representative. Last year, the export price and volume of waste paper soared in the winter, resulting in temporary oversupply of waste paper in the US domestic waste paper market this spring. If we understand the specific circumstances in which the new production capacity of recycled pulp production boxboard will increase the pressure on demand for waste paper in China in the next few months, it will no longer predict the next market development according to the original market cycle.
In this case, despite the weak demand for waste paper in the North American market, as long as China's large domestic imports in the near future will help raise the price of waste paper. Many people believe that if the supply of waste paper does not expand, then the overall trend of waste paper prices in 2004 will rise, even if there is a temporary decline in prices will not fall too much.
It is now known that the amount of waste paper imported by China is likely to rise a lot, and the magnitude of its increase is unforgettable. However, such a large growth rate may not be too long, because the rapid rise in waste paper prices, paper and paperboard prices must also increase, but due to a certain degree of excess production capacity in 2004, the price of paper and paperboard may be difficult With the increase in the price of waste paper, the demand and price of waste paper will be constrained.
Due to the further growth in production capacity during the year, more Chinese users will enter the market to purchase waste paper, and the demand for waste paper will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2004, the number of imported waste paper in China will remain at 2.5-2 million tons per year, and the total annual import volume will reach 10-12 million tons. At that time, the paper companies' complaints about excessively high prices of waste papers will reach a climax in 2004. Of course, Chinese users are the most responsive. However, they have to continue to purchase in order to maintain production, consolidate and expand their market share of products.
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