Ppzhan content summary: The cumulative production of mechanism paper in January-May 2011 was 43.853 million tons, up 14.28% year-on-year, down 0.33 percentage points from April and down 3.77 percentage points from the same period of last year. According to various data, experts analyzed that the output growth of the paper industry in the second half of this year tends to grow slowly. Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline, the pressure of supply and demand still exists. Raw material prices will remain at a high level and paper prices will remain stable.
Industry output growth has slowed down. The cumulative production of mechanism paper in January-May 2011 was 43.853 million tons, up 14.28% year-on-year, down 0.33 percentage points from April and down 3.77 percentage points from the same period of last year. We believe that due to the impact of the macro economy, the production enthusiasm of the manufacturers will be hit. The output growth rate will fall in the third half of the second half of the year, between 12% and 14%, and it is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, and still maintain the cumulative growth rate of 14.1% in 2011. Judgment.
Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline, the pressure of supply and demand still exists. The growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline since the beginning of 2010. The accumulated value of fixed assets investment in May 2011 reached 612.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 18.7%, down 9.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. The effect is generated at 2H2011 until the full production cycle is 18 months. However, despite such large-scale and concentrated production capacity, the pressure on supply and demand in the second half of the year still exists, and the supply and demand conditions of various paper types are different.
Raw material prices will remain at a high level and paper prices will remain stable. In terms of raw materials, the price of chemical pulp for softwood and hardwood has been rising in the first half of the year. Although the growth rate in April and May has slowed down, it is still at a high level, which is more than 10% higher than the price at the beginning of the year. In the upward phase of the price, taking the US Waste 3# as an example, the current quotation is up 11.3% from the beginning of the year. We think that the possibility of a sharp drop in raw material prices in the second half of the year is unlikely, and will remain at a high level. In the second quarter of the paper product price, except for the white card paper price increase, the price of other paper types remained unchanged, and the price will continue to maintain the price level in the second quarter.
Industry output growth has slowed down. The cumulative production of mechanism paper in January-May 2011 was 43.853 million tons, up 14.28% year-on-year, down 0.33 percentage points from April and down 3.77 percentage points from the same period of last year. We believe that due to the impact of the macro economy, the production enthusiasm of the manufacturers will be hit. The output growth rate will fall in the third half of the second half of the year, between 12% and 14%, and it is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, and still maintain the cumulative growth rate of 14.1% in 2011. Judgment.
Although the growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline, the pressure of supply and demand still exists. The growth rate of fixed asset investment has continued to decline since the beginning of 2010. The accumulated value of fixed assets investment in May 2011 reached 612.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 18.7%, down 9.8 percentage points from the same period of last year. The effect is generated at 2H2011 until the full production cycle is 18 months. However, despite such large-scale and concentrated production capacity, the pressure on supply and demand in the second half of the year still exists, and the supply and demand conditions of various paper types are different.
Raw material prices will remain at a high level and paper prices will remain stable. In terms of raw materials, the price of chemical pulp for softwood and hardwood has been rising in the first half of the year. Although the growth rate in April and May has slowed down, it is still at a high level, which is more than 10% higher than the price at the beginning of the year. In the upward phase of the price, taking the US Waste 3# as an example, the current quotation is up 11.3% from the beginning of the year. We think that the possibility of a sharp drop in raw material prices in the second half of the year is unlikely, and will remain at a high level. In the second quarter of the paper product price, except for the white card paper price increase, the price of other paper types remained unchanged, and the price will continue to maintain the price level in the second quarter.
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